Parker, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

554
FXUS65 KBOU 132045
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
245 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry thunderstorms and new wildfire starts possible Thursday.

- Hot weather peaks tomorrow, then slight cooling but still above
  normal temperatures most of the week ahead.

- Moisture increases slightly for a chance of storms most areas
  Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

The main concerns will be Thursday`s forecast, when record/near
record heat will combine with a threat of dry thunderstorms and
new wildfire starts. More on the fire danger in the Fire Weather
section.

With regard to Thursday`s heat, the upper level ridge and thermal
axis will shift across eastern Colorado. We`ll start off quite
warm with only shallow inversions as well, so it won`t take much
for temperatures to soar into the 90s. We think most of the
plains will be above 90F before 11 am, and in some cases as early
as 10 am. Highs will be very close to records, with strong
agreement of highs 98-99F for Denver, but a 20-30% chance we reach
100F given the location of the thermal ridge and dry ground.
Those kind of temperatures put us very close to Heat Advisory
levels, but at least some cumulus buildups and later day high
based showers/storms around the area will provide some cooling.
Those showers will also spell strong, gusty microbursts/outflows
for the late afternoon and early evening, given DCAPE near 1800
J/kg once again. Similar strong, gusty winds will be possible with
any high based showers we get this afternoon/early evening before
dissipating with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

For Friday, models are still advertising an uptick in moisture
around the periphery of the upper level ridge shifting to the
east. It`s not great, but at least precipitable water values climb
to near normal for this time of year. Thus, the threat of dry
thunderstorms should decrease slightly, and overall coverage will
increase. The most numerous showers and storms are expected to
occur in the mountains, with lesser coverage eastward over the
plains. Temperatures will still be quite warm given the proximity
of the upper ridge, but a few degrees cooler with the uptick in
moisture and shower/storm coverage. Saturday should be nearly a
repeat of Friday, with moderate moisture in southwest flow aloft.
Temperatures should continue their slight cooling trend - with
readings closer to normal.

There is more agreement to the ridge beginning to retrograde by
Sunday, and some drying behind Saturday`s potential weak shortwave.
Thus, Sunday into Monday appear drier at this point. Some
moisture does build east of the Front Range, so there will still
be a 20-30% chance of storms each afternoon/early evening.

Ensembles generally agree the upper level ridge then retrogrades
and rebuilds over western Colorado and eastern Utah by the middle
of next week. That`s not terribly favorable for rain or heat
relief. Overall, the main chance of rain would stay along/east of
the Front Range, with temperatures holding a few degrees above
normal through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Main concern is for gusty microburst winds 21/22Z-01/02Z. We`ll be
warming dry adiabatically to near 500 mb this afternoon, and
DCAPE values rise to an impressive 1800 J/kg. With just enough
moisture, we will likely see a few microbursts in the area, but
still some uncertainty since mid level moisture is still quite
sparse. Thus, we`ll maintain the Prob30 rather than TEMPO for the
22Z-01Z period. With such DCAPE, it wouldn`t be hard to get brief
G40 kts, but also isolated G50 kts for the maximums.

Outside of that, we expect VFR conditions to persist and fairly
normal diurnal wind patterns. Some light smoke possible but it
should stay mostly elevated through the period, as HRRR shows
limited near surface smoke. Just a 20-30% chance it could bring
IMC conditions around sunset and sunrise, heavily depending on how
active fires in western Colorado become this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Hot temperatures and low humidity of 15% or less over the high
mountain valleys, foothills, and I-25 Corridor and nearby adjacent
plains will keep elevated fire weather conditions in place until
early evening. Winds are fortunately staying light, except near
isolated high based showers/storms/virga. The northern mountain
zones of 211, 213, and 217 also have slightly stronger winds with
gusts around 20-25 mph, but under critical thresholds.

On Thursday, critical fire weather conditions will be likely due
to dry lightning. With the slight increase in upper level
moisture, convection should become a little more pronounced.
Of importance, we are uncertain in how extensive the lightning
threat will be, as instability is quite limited. Thus, while
thunderstorms may only be isolated, the dry fuel conditions and
hot/low RH environment will be favorable for new fire starts.
Thus, we`ve opted to upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for the high
country to a Red Flag Warning.

Friday will still be quite warm and dry in the low levels, but
mid and upper level moisture will increase further. Therefore,
scattered storms with hopefully wetting rains will become more
numerous. There`s still a chance that a few storms could be dry
so we`ll watch this closely.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ211>218.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch